Narendra Modi’s path to power in 2019

We are five days away from the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and just one phase of voting is remaining (Phase 7 on Sunday, 19th May 2019). The long election campaign has finally ended and the direction of India for the next five years would be known soon.

Narendra Modi
Modi close to winning a second term

As we come close to the exit polls on Saunday, the 19th May 2019 I would also like to put out my numbers for the BJP. I would admit that I am neither a psephologist nor am I privy to any exit poll numbers. I do not personally know the ground situation of seats outside Mumbai-Thane. Hence depending on the various opinions over social media, I would like to present my numbers in the following format,

  1. Highly Pessimistic Tally: This could be the absolute base of the BJP and the party is unlikely to be here in 2019.
  2. Normal Tally: This would be my main prediction for the BJP and the most possible scenario in 2019.
  3. Highly Optimistic Tally: This is the scenario where all states go the way of the BJP. Only a Modi tsunami can bring this to reality.

So here are is my prediction for the BJP,

BJP Tally - Pessimistic Normal and Optimistic

My prediction for the BJP is 258 seats (range of 250-260) in a normal scenario. The highly pessimistic scenario is 215 for the BJP while the highly optimistic tally is 303. The BJP would thus be 10-20 seats way from the majority on it’s own. Similarly the Congress does not look like crossing 100 seats in 2019.

If we consider the tally of the BJP’s allies, the NDA would be 310 in the normal scenario and 365 in the highly optimistic scenario. Even in the highly pessimistic scenario, the NDA would be about 255 seats viz. 17 seats below majority.

My projection for the NDA allies is a follows,NDA Allies Tally - Pessimistic Normal and Optimistic

Following are the reasons for the above figures,

  • BJP will suffer a loss of seats in UP due to the maha gatbandhan between SP and BSP. BJP could be 41 (highly pessimistic) to 60 (highly optimistic) in UP. The SP-BSP coalition along with a minor partner RLD would get more seats as compared to last time. However, the arithmetic of MGB has not been able to beat the chemistry of BJP-Modi-Yogi in this election season.
  • BJP would gain hugely in the eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal. These states can give good numbers for the BJP ranging from 17 (highly pessimistic) to 38 (highly optimistic). The sun has risen for the BJP in the east.
  • Maharashtra will give a good number of seats to NDA with the BJP+Sena alliance set to get 33 (highly pessimistic) to 42 (highly optimistic). This is not bad considering the drought situation in three divisions of the state and the old wily fox Sharad Pawar fighting hard to save his party and legacy from extinction.
  • There will be loss of seats for the BJP in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar. The BJP had a 80-90% run rate in these states in 2014, so it was natural that the only way was down in 2019. But the Congress would not get the expected numbers, after the victories in the vidhan sabha elections of 2018. The Congress’s broken promises on farm loan waiver / unemployment allowance and the Modi factor will ensure BJP will maintain a lot of their seats in these key states.
  • Karnataka will give more seats to the BJP in 2019. The gain could be anywhere between two to four seats. The opportunistic Congress – JDS alliance and their constant bickering has put off the voters in Karnataka.
  •  BJP could open it’s account in Kerala this time. This could mean the shampoo haired casanova would have to sit at home for the next five years. If the BJP manages to get two seats in Kerala, it would be a major earthquake in the liberal and commie circles.
  • The AIADMK alliance in TN can get anywhere from 5 (highly pessimistic) to 18 seats (highly optimistic). The alliance is hit by the double anti incumbency in the centre and state, while DMK seems to be on the ascent. The gains in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (gain of six-seven seats in the most optimistic scenario) will nullify the loses in the Telugu speaking states and ensure BJP gets a bigger tally in the South, compared to 2014.
  • BJP faces a potential loss of two-three seats in Gujarat this time, but the persona and governance record of Modi has ensured that the losses are not bigger. Modi factor could even ensure a loss of only 1 seat or a clean sweep.
  • North East states will give a huge increase of seats to the BJP and their NEDA allies. Congress on the other hand faces a wipeout in the North East. BJP gains would be in Assam, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur.
  • Haryana has been a good story for the BJP with chief minister Manoharlal Khattar doing a good job in the last five years. The BJP could win 7 (highly pessimistic) to 10 (highly optimistic) seats in the state.
  • JDU and LJP would do reasonable well in Bihar due to the Modi factor which is working for the Lok Sabha election in Bihar.

In conclusion, the NDA led by Narendra Modi is set to form the government with 311 seats (BJP:258 and NDA allies: 53). Even the highly pessimistic scenario gives 255 seats to the NDA (BJP: 215 and NDA allies: 40). With these numbers, the NDA can easily attract either two of BJD, TRS or YSRCP to get a simple majority. In the highly optimistic scenario the NDA would top 369 seats (BJP:303 and NDA allies: 66) and get a huge majority.

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